But now, delegates to global
climate talks here have dusted off the concept.
Deforestation and other land-use changes account for up to
25 percent of the CO2 that human activities release into the
atmosphere each year.
By conserving the forests, analysts
say, countries can maintain a natural storehouse for a
significant amount of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Avoided deforestation, as it's
known, "is a very salient question" for future
emission-reduction regimes, says Nigel Purvis, a former US
negotiator to the protocol who is now with the Nature
Conservancy.
The Kyoto Protocol's first
commitment period ends in 2012. Industrial countries are
bracing for new emissions targets far tougher than the ones
they agreed to reach between 2008 and 2012 - an average of
some 5 percent below 1990 levels.
Countries in the European Union,
for example, are exploring the possibility of cuts in CO2
emissions from 15 to 30 percent below 1990 levels for a
post-2012 commitment period. Adding avoided-deforestation
projects to the tool kit - allowing industrial countries to
receive credits against their emissions targets - could help
the heavier polluters.
Let developing
countries earn credits
Some variations on the idea would
allow developing countries as well to earn carbon credits
for each ton of emissions avoided through such projects.
These countries could sell their credits on the growing
international carbon market. In principle, the money would
flow back to local residents who otherwise would have cut
trees for a living or cleared forests to grow crops.
Jeorg Siefert-Grazin, with the
Fundación Amigos de la Naturaleza (Friends of Nature
Foundation) in Bolivia, points to the Noel Kempff Climate
Action Project in his country as an example of what can be
done.
Since 1997, the project has grown
to embrace slightly more than 2,300 square miles of tropical
forest as a national park. The partners have devised ways to
compensate residents for getting out of the timber business.
The project's partners include the Nature Conservancy, the
Bolivian government, and three energy companies.
The project falls outside anything
currently acceptable under Kyoto's "clean-development
mechanism" for earning carbon credits. But it has potential,
supporters say.
Last month, a Dutch firm that
certifies CDM projects finished its review of the Noel
Kempff project and gave it a thumbs up. They calculate that
the effort to date has ensured that nearly 1 million tons of
carbon that would have been released to the atmosphere has
remained locked up in the forest's trees and undergrowth.
Using avoided deforestation as an
approach to meeting emissions targets still arches eyebrows.
Bill Hare, climate policy director for Greenpeace
International, notes that several peer-reviewed studies have
cast doubt on some of the project's claims for success.
Projects must
include all forest areas
In addition, he points to the
patchwork nature of the project - protecting some of
Bolivia's forests while leaving other sections unprotected.
Such projects provide no net benefit to the atmosphere if
loggers "leak" from protected to unprotected forests.
To resolve this, delegates from
Papua New Guinea and Costa Rica have proposed that if a
developing country wants to attract avoided-deforestation
projects, it must include all its forests in a national
program.
The idea, widely seen as one
example of developing countries' willingness to do more to
reduce emissions and help shape the future of the protocol
and the 1992 framework convention, has met with generally
favorable responses.
This approach "is a very
constructive proposal," Mr. Hare says. "It would not solve
everything, but it would solve a lot of problems" that many
people currently see with avoided deforestation.